In A World of Sports

The other day I wrote my first round predictions for the Eastern Conference, today I’m doing the West.  Of course I went East first because that is a far more predictable conference, there are really only 3 contenders in the East, Boston, Detroit and Lebron; The West is almost wide open.  All 8 teams that make it in the West, though not capable of winning a championship, can by all means pull off an upset in the 1st round.  One note before we jump in is the fact that I’m writing this on Sunday, March 2nd and some of the games are finished, some aren’t, so the seeds may very well change by the time I’m done writing this column, but I’m sticking with the seeds as of this exact moment in time: March 2nd at 9:08 p.m.  Crazy.

#1 San Antonio Spurs vs. #8 Golden State Warriors

Decidedly I’m going to pull my hair out trying to pick winners in this conference.  Golden State so far leads the regular season series 2-0 with one more game to go.  The first matchup wasn’t close in the box score but The Spurs were without Tim Duncan, and the game was a low scoring affair 96-84 Golden State, the second went to OT where Stephen Jackson took over in a 130-121 victory.  Golden State was the feel good story of last year’s playoffs with that monumental upset over the Mavericks that caused Dirk Nowitzki to lose his mind.  They have a good chance at doing it again this year, but I don’t think they will surprise anyone with an “upset” this year.  This matchup will come down to who forces the other team into playing their style, Pop’s defensive Spurs will want to slow it down and grind it out, where as Nellie’s Warriors will try and turn the tempo up and play small ball.  I think the greatest thing going against the Golden State Warriors is that this year they won’t catch San Antonio off guard like they did Dallas, and the Spurs won’t wilt away like the fragile minded Mavericks did in the first round last year.  I think at home the Warriors will be tough, and they’ll force the Spurs hand in a couple of games into fast-paced basketball.  But the Spurs can play pretty quick themselves, with Ginobili and Parker.  I prefer San Antonio’s experience and coaching to the exciting game that Golden State plays, but I think Golden State will still make this a great series to watch (much more fun than anything else San Antonio will do in this post season).  Spurs win in 7.

#2 Los Angeles Lakers vs. #7 Dallas Mavericks

These two played a game this afternoon that went to OT, the Lakers won it 108-104.  Kobe scored 52 points, 30 in the fourth quarter and overtime to help lead his team past another Western power.  This season series is split, however Dallas’ victory came back in late January, when Bynum was hurt and before the controversial Gasol trade landed Kobe in Showtime.  The biggest question facing the Lakers in the playoffs is Kobe.  This year so far he has found the right balance between playing two different kinds of Kobe, the team playing, ball distributing Bryant, and then the one we know, the Bryant that take the ball on every play and scores.  It’s in the team’s best interest of the Lakers for Kobe to play nice and involve his teammates in the early going, getting them motivated, scoring and passing, then in the later stages, if the game is tight and the Lakers need a basket on every possession, for Kobe to take over like he did today.  The Kidd trade was meant to give Dallas better toughness and leadership in the post-season which I think it will do, and Kidd still has time to learn how to best run this Mavericks team, but I don’t think Kidd will be enough against these superior Lakers.   This will be the best series of the 1st round of the playoffs if Kidd can keep Dallas from self-combusting like they did a year ago.  Both teams are well coached, have great depth and can play at very high levels.  However it will be the Lakers moving on behind great play by Kobe.  Lakers win in 6.

#3 New Orleans Hornets vs. #6 Phoenix Suns

This isn’t exactly breaking news but it is the truth: The Phoenix Suns will not win a championship, not this year, and likely not with Steve Nash.  This year, they won’t even make it out of the first round.  So sad.  Steve Nash is still very exciting to watch, and can make passes no one else in the game can make, but he just doesn’t have it in him to lead this team to a championship.  Shaq was brought into Phoenix for similar reasons that Kidd was brought to Dallas, to make the team mentally tougher in the post-season, adding experience and leadership.  Unfortunately, like the Kidd move to Dallas, bringing Shaq to the desert won’t help.  There is the off chance that Nash, Stoudemire and O’Neal play their best basketball of the year in the playoffs, but I don’t see that happening.  They would all have to elevate their game, night in night out in the playoffs at the same time for this team to make it far.  It won’t happen.  New Orleans on the other hand, is being led by the best young point guard in the game.  Chris Paul won’t win an MVP this year, it will likely be Kobe Bryant or Lebron James, with Garnett having an outside shot if he dominates the last couple months of the season.  But Chris Paul is the most deserving player in the league.  Chris Paul makes all the difference between the Hornets being the 3rd seed in the West, or being the 13th seed.  Chris Paul will also win this series.  Steve Nash can’t handle Paul and he will punish the Suns for trading away Marion’s defense.  Shaq will be the key, if he can be half of the Shaq of old then Phoenix can possibly make it out of the first round.  I don’t see that happening.  I’m taking New Orleans in 5.

#4 Utah Jazz vs. #5 Houston Rockets

I haven’t watched enough games of either of these teams to know how they play to be honest.  All I know is what I read.  From what I read I like Utah’s chances.  Yao Ming is gone but that hasn’t stopped the Rockets from winning, but the Rockets just can’t seem to win in the playoffs.  They are a much better team this year than years past, but I still think they are too soft, and losing Ming, despite the fact that he can’t play defense, is going to hurt them down the stretch.  Utah is also a solid basketball team.  They are led by Deron Williams who is one of the top 5 point guards, and play a great team game under the guidance of coach Jerry Sloan.  Sloan is normally a defense first guy, and a control freak, but he has let his team play some pretty high scoring games this year and loosened up a bit to help keep his team, and Andrei Kirilenko, happy.  However, I think in the playoffs you’ll see them playing shut down D on the Rockets and keeping the game nice and slow and boring.  At any rate, the Jazz will come out on top in 6 and McGrady’s futility in the playoffs will continue.

Well there you have it.  Not exactly the most in depth look at the playoffs, but it’s how I see things shaking down.  Surprisingly I predicted no upsets in the West if these were the matchups.  If there are to be any upsets in the Western conference I say it is going to be Phoenix over New Orleans, because of New Orleans’ inexperience but I just think Phoenix’ time has come and gone already, they needed to win last year and maybe would have were it not for those suspensions.  Having said that we’ll just have to wait and see how the last 25 or so games of the season play out.