In A World of Sports

Holy shit. 

I haven’t written a blog in months, ages, a millenia.  I considered getting rid of this site, since I have to pay for it and in these tough economic times, I figured my benjamins could be better spent elsewhere.  Well, with the beginning of the hockey season I’m somewhat glad I didn’t.  So, I’ve decided I may as well try to get back on board of this blog and make it worth my money. If that doesn’t work I suppose it will be time to cancel my payments for this altogether and spend my hard earned money on something more worthwhile like salsa dance lessons, or toothpaste.

 So here we go.  My A Tad Bit Late NHL Season Preview….First, let’s cover the teams, and their odds at winning the Cup this year.

The Champs

The Detroit Red Wings.  Expected to repeat as champs, and be the first team to do so since they did it themselves back to back in ‘97 and ‘98.  It’s hard to argue against them.  This organisation blows my mind.  Built from a smart front office on out, Detroit has been surprisingly immune to the salary cap era.  The thing that really gets me is despite many changes they have experienced, from players to coaches since the early 90’s, things in Detroit generally stay the same. They draft and develop well, they make smart signings both in regards to free agents and their own players, and they have had among the 2 best “lead-by-example” captains of the past 30 or so years.  But, the most important factor is the system.  Detroit has had the same system and playing style since Bowman - puck possession.  They control the play so well and force teams to play how Detroit wants them to play.  There are differences of course between how Bowman coached and Mike Babcock and everyone in between, but the general style and function never changed.  This is why they are the most consistently winning team in the NHL.  They are like the New England Patriots under Bill “I cheat and don’t give a damn” Bellichick or the Spurs under Gregg Popovich.  Everyone is on the same page in this organisation and that’s why they win, and win a lot. 

They were the best team when all was said and done last year and it looks like they just got better in the offseason.  The only problem is, it is so hard to repeat in this league and I just don’t know if Osgoode can do it for them in back to back seasons.  I don’t think they will repeat, but until they are dethroned, they are the champs, they are the favourites and all signs point to yes.

1-1 Odds at winning the Lord Stanley’s Cup.

 The Contenders

San Jose - Sigh.  Every year I always give these guys the benefit of the doubt.  A few people are picking them to finally break out of their playoff slump and actually perform in the post season - I’ll believe it when I see it.  I love Jumbo Joe, but his game is too soft and perimeter oriented for the playoffs.  Last year, in the last game of the season he fought Steve Ott I believe it was, and I got a big (for me) chubby and thought “oh man, Joe’s mad, Joe’s pumped, Joe’s MEAN, this is his year!”, so I took him with my first pick in my playoff hockey pool (6th overall or something to that effect).  I’m not making that mistake again. 

This team needs Thornton and Marleau to perform to win the cup, and both have generally been disappointments in the playoffs outside of a round or two, but they just don’t elevate their game enough.  The hope may rest more with the kids on this team: Setoguchi, Pavelski, Clowe, and Michalek - if they can improve their chances are much better.  I’m not a big fan of their defense though.  I heard a commentator the other day refer to Rob Blake as their “shut down guy”…Rob Blake has never been a shut down guy and he is now 38.  Dan Boyle is a good pick up as a puck mover though he is overpayed.

It’s a good team, but until their leaders lead them in the postseason, they will only ever contend.  Joe Thornton, once among my favourites, has broken my heart too many times.

3-1 Odds at wrastling the Cup from The Champs. 

Pittsburgh - Nope.  This team lost too much in the offseason (skill, toughness, character, leadership).  Hossa, Malone, Laraque , Roberts (though he wasn’t much of a player anymore don’t discount his presence in the room with young kids) and now they are hurting way too much on the backend.  Satan and Fedotenko are bad pickups, and don’t come remotely close to replacing what left with Hossa and Malone.  And ever since Fleury let in that HORRIBLE goal in the World Juniors I have questioned him.  He is good, but I feel like he is a confidence goalie and if he lets in one bad goal in the postseason Pittsburgh’s hopes go down the shitter, which is always scary.  Fleury should actually be the goalie for the Senators, because his fickle mental state would fit right in with that team.  Moreover, they lost Conklin who is a serviceable backup who played amazing for them when Fleury went down last year and now they have Sebourin, who can’t play as well as Conklin if needed for an extended period.

Having said all that, when you have Malkin and Crosby you can compete night in, night out, and they will give them an opportunity to get back to the promised land.  But Crosby seems hard to play with for a lot of players (Hossa and him were really starting to gel though) since everything he does is at top speed, and Malkin will tire out again since he takes 12 minute shifts.  I also like Letang a lot -any kid who plays for Canada in the World Junior championships, let alone captains the team will always have a place in my heart. 

One thing though about Crosby and Malkin: I don’t like them on the penalty kill.  I know they need to become complete players, and you want to be able to put your stars out in all situations, but I don’t think you should do that with these young guys.  People will point to a couple of recent greats like Yzerman and Sakic who have done it, and guys now like Zetterberg, Datsyuk and Lecavalier…but they didn’t do these things in their 3rd and 4th years in the league as 21 year olds.  Let Crosby and Malkin develop their game in 5 on 5 situations.  Don’t tire them out killing penalties and risk their health blocking shots on the PK - not this early in their careers.  They need to become the complete package and they will, but keep them off the penalty kill for now.

5-1 Odds.  I would like to give them worse odds but they have 2 of the top 5 most dynamic players in the world on their team, that helps.

Montreal - Ovèreratee - that’s how you spell overrated in French, I looked it up.  Don’t get me wrong, I like this team, bordering on love.  But that alone raises a red flag for me.  I tell you now, any team I cheer for will ultimately fail.  That’s the real reason San Jose has never broken through - I cheer for Joe and the gang every year and every year they shit the bed and I’m the reason why.  If you go to a casino with me, I’ll take you to the roulette table, and bet the opposite of me whenever you can and you will win, I’m awesome that way.  Well this year I’m big on Montreal so I’ve doomed them before the puck has even dropped on this new season.  Montreal’s success depends on too many uncertainties: 

The Kids - Kostitsyns, Plekanec, Latendresse, need bigger seasons than last year which worries me because they are generally unproven.  But I have faith in Gainey and his staff in terms of evaluating talent and potential.

Kovalev needs to prove that my theory from last year - that he was actually taken into outerspace last summer, after scoring really high on an arcade game in a trailerpark to become the greatest starfighter and last hope of mankind, and replaced by an alien who looked a lot like Kovalev but was ultimately a better hockey player, teammate, and more aggressive with Kovalev’s girlfriend - was wrong.

Koivu and Higgins need to be more productive and consistent as members of a #2 line.  The team also generally needs to be tougher, though they have addressed that with the addition of Laraque. 

Things going in Montreal’s favour is the fact that a few key players are in contract years - Kovalev and Koivu to name two - and players in contract years almost always play above their heads. And they have Carey Price.  Too many people are doubting the kid, saying he crumpled last year under the pressure and are saying it will affect him this year.  What?  This is a kid who, almost to a man, scouts said had ice water in his veins.  People like that don’t suddenly crumple.  You want to know what happened to him?  He got tired.  He was 20, not in great shape, and he got tired playing too many games.  If you look at his games last year, when Price started playing too many consecutive games between the pipes his numbers dipped.  After a night off, he’d come in and get a shutout.  Montreal needs to cap his games this year and he’ll be fine.  He came in to camp in better shape and he is good enough to backstop them to the finals.  Except for the fact that I just said that, as a result they are doomed.

2-1 Odds (Please note that Montreal’s actual odds, after being adjusted to account for ”The Skinner Factor”, are 1,000,000-1)

Philadelphia - Behind Montreal, this is my team to come out of the East.  They are skilled, tough, fast, gritty, deep.  I think they need one more d-man (Bouwmeester at the deadline anyone?) and questions will always remain for Philly goaltenders until they get it done but Biron is their best in years.   But I like this team, go down the list and they have one of the best built teams in the league and they are only 2 years removed from finishing dead last (although they were much better than a last place team that year).  But they are good now and should be a good team for several more years if they can keep their young guys in the system.

Odds 4-1.

The Pretenders - pretenders don’t get odds like contenders do because they are just pretending not contending, that’s a FACT.

Dallas.  I should probably put these guys under the contenders category but I’m going to be honest - I don’t see them enough.  They are a very balanced team, well coached, and Turco is one of the best goalies in the league not to win a cup.  I like Morrow, Modano, and Richards, and picking up Avery, though he is a douche, is a good move because he is a powerplay waiting to happen.  I don’t like Ribeiro though.  Ever since he faked that injury while on Montreal a few years ago in the playoffs I haven’t like him.  He is a punk, and I really wish he would untuck his freakin’ jersey it drives me nuts.  If I could turn into a minotaur and headbutt anybody in the NHL it would probably be Ribeiro. I don’t care that he has turned into better than a point a game guy - so long as Dallas has Ribeiro they are pretenders in my book.

Anaheim.  2 years removed from a Stanley Cup this team remains among the league elite.  One of the best defensive cores in the NHL and they have reasonably good offensive potential and a proven keeper.  They are still among the best in the West but not in the same category as Detroit and San Jose, and I expect that Pronger, Niedermeyer and Selanne will decline.  Getzlaf will be a great power forward for years but unfortunately he is balding prematurely and they still keep sending my boyfriend down - Bobby Ryan.  I almost always waste my last pick on rookie in pools for a reason I can’t explain and I’ve done is twice with Ryan over the past 3 years including my playoff pool last year.   I still expect big things from him though, just not this year.

Calgary.  I have more contenders in the East and Pretenders in the West.  Why is that?  Well, because the East is competitive, but really only has a few teams that can come out of the conference into the final in my opinion and those are of course Pittsburgh, Philly, Montreal and one other team but I’ll get to that later.  The West has a whole slew of teams that if in the East would be bumped into Contender status, but since they are in the West, where there are more “elite” teams it is harder to come out of, they are dropped to Pretender status.  Calgary is my final victim of the tough West, and last of the Pretenders.  I think Sutter should go back behind the bench because he seems to be able to get the most out this team.  They will never be able to score enough, so what they have to do is be really tough to play against.  Forecheck relentlessly, hit hard, grind it out, and wear teams down in a series.  They will also need Kipper to be better than he was last year.  But, until they can get a second scoring line and get back to the playing style that brought them to the Cup finals a few years ago, they are nothing but a bunch of pretenders.  OH SNAP!  Phaneuf will challenge for the Norris this year though. 

So there are the Champs, Contenders and Pretenders.  So what’s next?  Well.  Last but not least are 2 teams to watch.  I don’t think they can win it, not this year, but these are the two teams I am most excited to watch this year.

Chicago and Washington.  I feel like a bit of a bandwagoneer for liking these two teams, and I kind of am when it comes to Washington, but when it comes to Chicago let me defend myself by saying this:  I have liked the Blackhawks for several years now, and I always like the Original 6 teams. 

I started to like Chicago when they had Steve Sullivan (whom I have followed since Pat Quinn literally gave him away in Toronto) and Michael Nylander playing together.  They were exciting as hell to watch.  And I really started paying attention when they drafted Tuomo Ruutu who I thought could have been the next Forsberg…which I guess he sort of was, only Ruutu’s injuries happened BEFORE he got really good and not after like Forsberg.  And a lot of players have gone through that team in recent years whom I’ve liked - Eric Daze, and Tyler Arnason, to  name a couple.  And now Chicago has a ton of young kids I’ve been keeping an eye on since before they stepped onto NHL ice.  Cam Barker, Brent Seabrook, Dave Bolland, Jack Skille, Duncan Keith,  and then of course there is Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews (I will never forget his shootout performance in the World Juniors).  How can you not like this team?  They are young, fast, exciting, talented and surprisingly deep.  The pick up Huet to hopefully finally solidify their goaltending, and landed one of the biggest free agent fish in Campbell even though they overpayed him.  They have much higher expectations put on them this year and the kids will have to prove they deserve the praise, but this team has the potential to be a beast in the West for the next 10 years.   

Now, The Caps.  Ovechkin has been a sexy player since he came into the NHL and last year he finally had a cast of solid supporting characters.  I must admit I got swept up during their magnificent run under Bruce Boudreau but I really like to watch these guys.  They will win their division again and have a shot at joining the East’s elite if Theodore doesn’t play as bad as he is capable of playing (he was pretty good last year but again, that was a contract year).  They are also pretty young and talented and should be better offensively with captain Chris Clark and Michael Nylander back in the fold and Backstrom a year older.  But let’s face it.  Most of the excitement around this team is because of Ovechkin, but it’s well deserved.  He is one of the most exciting athletes on the planet.  If I had to pick somone to build a team around for the next 1-5 years it’s probably Ovechkin, if you’re talking longer term I’m thinking Crosby.  The Caps are the not-so-dark horse in the East that can come out of the conference if they build on last year’s momentum and get a solid performance from Jose “it wasn’t steroids it was hair growth medicine” Theodore. 

So there it is.  My season preview for Teams - written last minute on an impulse.  Next time I’ll talk a bit about some players, forecast some trophy winners and maybe even project the regular season standings.  If I really feel like it, I’ll touch on the Leafs a bit.  But everytime I try to write something about the Leafs I end up sounding too angry and bitter, which I am….just thinking about the Leafs makes my veins bulge out of my head, and makes me want to push old people over and litter.  But I don’t litter…pushing over old people on the other hand…